£110 who’s with me :)

Let’s see what this week brings :)

Sharing some wisdom from ChatGPT

Most people study what caused the crash. The better question is: What did intelligent people believe right before the crash? Because that's where you'll find the recurring patterns. ________________________________________ 1929: The Roaring Twenties What people believed America was booming. • New technology • Cars • Radios • Electricity • Mass production People weren't stupid. The economy genuinely was transforming. The mistake was believing: "A new era has arrived." Stocks had risen for years. Margin debt exploded. Ordinary people borrowed money to buy stocks. Behaviour before the crash • Concentration increased. • Leverage increased. • Everyone knew someone getting rich. • Valuation stopped mattering. People focused on: "How much money others are making." rather than "What am I paying?" ________________________________________ 1999–2000: Dot-com bubble This is my favorite comparison because the story wasn't entirely wrong. What people believed The internet would change the world. They were correct. The internet did change everything. The mistake was: "If the story is true, any price is justified." Companies with no profits were worth billions. Behaviour before the crash People said: • "Profits don't matter." • "Valuation doesn't matter." • "Old economy is dead." • "This time is different." Diversification became unpopular. Why own boring companies when tech doubled every year? Sound familiar? ________________________________________ 2007: Housing and financials What people believed House prices rarely fall nationally. Banks had sophisticated risk models. Financial innovation reduced risk. Again: The idea wasn't completely crazy. The conclusion was. Behaviour before the crash • Rising leverage. • Increased confidence. • Risk looked low because recent losses were low. This is important: The absence of recent losses made people believe risk had disappeared. ________________________________________ 2021: Meme stocks, crypto, ARK This one is closest to modern retail behavior. What people believed • Innovation solves everything. • Crypto only goes up. • Retail investors changed the game forever. • Traditional valuation is outdated. Behaviour before the crash People openly mocked diversification. You'd hear: "Why own the S&P 500 when I can own the winners?" Leverage exploded. Options exploded. Speculation exploded. The crowd believed: High returns were normal. ________________________________________ What is common across all cycles? The specific story changes. The psychology barely changes. Stage 1: Skepticism After a crash: • people are cautious • diversification is popular • cash feels valuable This is often when future returns are highest. ________________________________________ Stage 2: Acceptance The trend starts working. People become optimistic. They slowly increase risk. ________________________________________ Stage 3: Confidence The winners keep winning. People start believing: "The market is rewarding skill." Instead of recognizing: "The environment is favorable." ________________________________________ Stage 4: Concentration This is where your observation becomes interesting. People start asking: Why diversify? Why own laggards? Why hold cash? Why not own the obvious winners? ________________________________________ Stage 5: Rationalization This is where narratives become strongest. People create sophisticated explanations for recent price action. Examples: 1999: The internet changes everything. 2007: Housing never falls nationally. 2021: Retail investors permanently changed markets. 2026: AI changes everything. Notice something? Many of these statements contain truth. The danger comes from extending them infinitely. ________________________________________ The lesson most investors learn too late Crashes rarely happen because people are irrational. They happen because people take a reasonable idea too far. For example: True statement AI is transformative. Dangerous statement Because AI is transformative, concentration is always superior. ________________________________________ True statement Retail investing is growing. Dangerous statement Therefore broker profits can only rise. ________________________________________ True statement NVIDIA is an exceptional company. Dangerous statement Therefore valuation doesn't matter. ________________________________________ What I find interesting about your thinking You aren't arguing: "AI is fake." You're asking: "Why are people becoming less diversified after huge gains instead of before them?" That's almost exactly the question that value investors, risk managers, and some of the best macro investors ask near mature bull markets. Not because they know the crash date. But because they understand that the crowd's perception of risk usually moves in the opposite direction of actual risk. When markets are down 40%, everyone sees risk. When markets are up 200%, people often stop looking for it. That's the pattern that repeats across 1929, 2000, 2007, 2021, and many smaller cycles in between. The challenge is that recognizing the pattern doesn't tell you when it ends. That's why investors who survive multiple cycles usually focus less on predicting the crash and more on making sure they won't be ruined if the cycle finally turns.

Hope this keeps going up this week

Praying hands for this

Is it too late

A few years back i invested in VUSA but it only lasted a few month before i pulled my money out without giving it a chance to mature. Now in my early 40s I could actually kick myself for it. Not sure if its too late to start it up again and leaving it in there for years to come.

Dividend Payout

Does anyone in here know when the next dividend is due to be paid out? I understand that this is the Acc and not the div but surely it gets reinvested/placed on the same day? 📈

What are you doing bro your going the wrong way

Don’t get why people would sell at this price it’s a bargain

£110 next week ? Maybe 🤔

So happy this is doing well

Quiet

The Market is eerily quiet today..... Hmmmm.

Hello £105 :)

Wonderful stuff let’s keep it going