Good entry

Just bought into Mastercard now, at about an 18 month low. Great opportunity. Mastercard isn’t going anywhere, their earnings report demonstrated its strength. Long term hold.

Surprised?

I’m not surprised after decent earnings it went down as most stocks now tend to drop after it but I thought after a little rise today it may continue up not drop back down. What’s holding it back at the moment?

New buy, my price forecast

Just bought this stock since the price is quite attractive. This is my EPS/price forecast with CAGR: 2026: $605 (+20.3%) $20.19 EPS at 30x earnings 2027: $700-750 (+39.5-49.15%) $23.35 at 30-32x earnings 2028: $805-940 (+60-87%) $26.85 at 30-35x earnings, with an assumption of 15% EPS growth, which I got from stockanalysis. This means Mastercard will have 15-25% CAGR. This looks like it may yield less than Netflix (20-25% CAGR) or ServiceNow (25% CAGR). I was hesitant to buy at first because of the stablecoin shift there will likely be in a few years, but I finally did some research and saw Mastercard was positioning to be a trust layer for stablecoin payments, fraud prevention, security, etc. This means their MOAT will transfer to any new forms of payment, and not disappear.

Earnings PDF 29/1/25

https://s25.q4cdn.com/479285134/files/doc_financials/2025/q4/4Q25-Mastercard-Earnings-Release.pdf

Trump’s 10% credit cards interest cap.

📉 1. Mastercard’s business model isn’t based on interest income Mastercard does not issue credit cards or earn interest on balances. • Mastercard is a payment network — it earns fees per transaction (interchange and network fees) when consumers use cards. • The interest consumers pay on outstanding credit card balances goes to the card issuer banks (e.g., JPMorgan Chase, Capital One, American Express).  👉 Because Mastercard doesn’t make money from interest charges, a cap on APR doesn’t directly cut Mastercard’s core revenue. ⸻ 💼 2. Indirect effects could be small or mixed While Mastercard’s fee-based model is insulated from interest rates, there are indirect channels where a cap could have market effects: 📊 A. Transaction volumes could shift • If consumers borrow cheaper (10% vs 20–30%), they might pay down debt faster, reducing outstanding balances and potentially slowing card usage. • Or conversely, cheaper credit could encourage more spending, which would boost transaction volumes and therefore fees.  Effect on stock? Mixed — investors may watch whether volumes rise or fall, not just the APR itself. 📉 B. Issuers might tighten credit If issuers can’t charge higher rates: • They could cut credit limits, cancel high-risk accounts, or reduce rewards to preserve profitability. • Fewer cards or lower spending on them could reduce transaction volume marginally, affecting Mastercard’s fees.  But these effects are secondary, not fundamental. 📈 C. Market perception & sentiment • News of regulatory pressure can cause short-term stock fluctuation based on uncertainty, not structural harm. For example, there were small moves in Mastercard’s share price after the announcement.  • Over the long term, real financials and payment volumes matter more to investors than headline proposals. ⸻ 🏛️ 3. Legal and practical hurdles make it unlikely to hit Mastercard hard soon Before any cap becomes law: • It would require congressional approval or regulatory action. Trump’s current proposal is a call for a rate cap, not final legislation.  • Banks and industry groups are already warning the idea could reduce credit access and may be legally challenged.  Even if implemented, Mastercard’s risk is tied to credit card usage trends, not interest margins. ⸻ 📌 Bottom line ✔️ Mastercard’s core business is relatively insulated from APR changes because it gets paid on transactions, not interest. ✔️ Any effect would be indirect and likely modest — through shifts in card usage, credit availability, or market sentiment. ✔️ The banks that issue cards (e.g., AmEx, Capital One) face the bigger direct hit on earnings if a 10% cap were imposed. In short: A 10% interest cap is not likely to meaningfully harm Mastercard’s long-term business or stock unless it leads to a dramatic drop in overall card spending — which is far from certain.

Mastercard increases dividend 14.5%

Mastercard ($MA) declared $0.87 share quarterly dividend, 14.5% increase from prior dividend of $0.76. • Forward yield 0.65% • Payable Feb. 9; for shareholders of record Jan. 9; ex-div Jan. 9.