Gold

FED rate expectations

If u havent read my last post i recommend it for context about the 4 scenarios. Today’s data shovelled the FED deeper into a scenario 4 (Strong labour market + high inflation). The jobs have held steady and so has high inflation. At the time of writing this traders are currently hedging their bets on a ~70% chance of a rate hike next week and this is a MAJOR BEARISH catalyst for gold. (Source: FedWatch) Traders say sate hikes are also almost certainly going to happen in October if not next week. (Source: FinancialJuice) CPI is now the final nail in the coffin for the FED and if it either prints higher (rising inflation) or neutral (continuing high inflation). Then the FED is basically forced to hike these rates to come anywhere close to Warsh’s 2% inflation target. Why the rebound? Short answer, housing data printed bearish for the dollar(bullish for gold) because it came slightly below forecast. Keep an eye on the data tmr, good luck and if youve read this far a follow is always appreciated ❤️

Maybe come back ?

Alright guys, what are your thoughts right now? Do you think the drop is done and we could see 4380–4400 again today? Really hoping this thing doesn’t drop any further today 😅

why

do peaple want this to go up just short

4320

strong support level?

Stuck in a range

Gold appears to be moving sideways with a double bottom formed at 4378 and a double top around 4433. With the bond buyback going through today after yesterdays pushback, mildly weak Employment data and the Redbook acting as a supporting argument to further gold expansion, I believe we may be going back up. Gold is targeting liquidity pools back and forth around support and resistance ahead of the PPI & CPI data. We've also had an announcement that Iran is reducing / removing the levy imposed on ships travelling to and from Iran which should further reduce the price of oil in the short term at the very least reducing the compression of gold price, and let's not forget Trumps brilliant idea of bribing the public to further reduce trust and sentiment throughout the market.

President has resulted to threats and bribery to try and win

Well I’m glad he now realises he’s in a pinch. I hope he loses. He can’t claim the war will end straight after they win if he couldn’t do it within 6 months of being in power. 5k dividend check if republicans win and he claims he’s the only one who can get rid of a nuclear weapon. He’s destroying the global economy, well done Iran you win if he loses.

What should I trade while gold acts like this

What should I trade when it’s ultimately not going to move. And play neutral 😐

Anyone hoping for 4360-4380?

Anyone hoping for 4360-4380? Before data comes out? Hope we can drop a little to buy back cheaper…

September Rates - What you need to know

Lots of ppl on the forum still new and might find this useful so heres the absolute basics The FED’s 2 main focuses: 1. Strength of the labour market 2. Inflation From this, 4 scenarios can be true: 1. Weak labour market + low inflation - Since prices are low but jobs are scarce the FED will likely CUT rates to strengthen the labour market. 🟢Bullish for gold 2. Weak labour market + high inflation - aka Stagflation, this is the worst case scenario for the FED and requires immediate action causing volatile and choppy conditions in the market. 3. Strong labour market + low inflation - ideal scenario for the fed, everyone is happy but nothing really happens as a result interest rates wise. 4. Strong labour market + high inflation - Despite jobs being plentiful people still struggle agaist rising prices, forcing the fed to hike interest rates to curb inflation. 🔴 bearish for gold Currently we are in a scenario 4. NFP recently showed 3 times stronger labour market than that which was forecasted. The only problem is inflation. Warsh’s inflation target is 2% and it is currently sitting at ~3.4% to which he himself has said there is “work to do” recently. That is why rate hike odds are ABOVE 50%. CPI! The consumer price index will release on Friday at 1:30PM UK time. This essentially measures inflation. Given what we now know about the rate hikes and cuts with the 4 scenarios, if we see inflation is cooling this will likely be 🟢 bullish for gold. + Rate hike odds 📉 Otherwise, in my opinion if we see inflation either rising or holding at the current level this proves the FED needs to intervene soon and will likely be 🔴 bearish for gold. + Rate hike odds 📈. Stay smart, stay aware and don’t risk more than you can afford to loose. P.S. if you read this far, a follow would be much appreciated ❤️

Gold is an absolute meat grinder around $4,401 right now.

Every time buyers try to push it past $4,404, sellers immediately swat it right back down. But every single time it dips under $4,400, buyers step in and scoop it back up. Total ping-pong match. Here is what I’m keeping an eye on: If the bulls take it: We need to see a solid 15-minute candle close above $4,404. If that happens, trapped shorts will likely have to scramble to cover, opening up a quick run toward $4,412 – $4,415. Just be careful up there, because there is still a massive wall of sellers parked around $4,418 – $4,420. If the bears take it: If buyers get exhausted and we slip under $4,396, everyone who bought the top of this bounce is stuck underwater. That forced selling could easily trigger a fast flush back down to retest the recent $4,388 low, with very little standing in the way of $4,375. Honestly, jumping into trades right in the middle of this tiny $4 range is just asking to get chopped to pieces. Probably best to let the market pick a side and wait for a clean break first. (Not financial advice at all, just sharing what I'm seeing on the tape for discussion. Always manage your own risk!)

THAT'S IT

Trump is coming to my neck of the woods at the weekend, I'm going to jump into the car now and sit and wait on him at the airport and ask him personally what the hell is happening here.... lol ☘️👊🤪

Bond/debt amendment

Past week has been wanting to go up. The G7 bond situation, the Japanese economy and trust in usd is definitely faltering, but huge gold liquidation (Iran) and as of about an hour ago a 6 billion debt buy back obligation have been making pms down trend. I’m tempted to buy and hold, but I’m sure there will be another quick short opportunity in the near future. Might just wait it out instead. Long term, I’m definitely expecting pms to go up, and inevitably crash -30% from the ai bubble. That’s my best guess 😇 Criticism is welcome

Nice drop.

Somehow people started throwing a hissy fit when I was just trying to sort my thoughts in the last post. Im glad I wrote that post for myself before I did anything rash.